Tom McClellan: sobre Apple, Microsoft y cómo será 2013

Buenos días a todos/as:

Ayer apareció Tom McClellan (hijo del matrimonio McClellan creadores de importantes indicadores de amplitud de mercado y desarrolladores) en la CNBC y estuvo hablando sobre el aspecto técnico de Apple y Microsoft. Por su interés lo reproducimos a continuación con una transcripción en inglés, es altamente interesante, no te lo pierdas aunque no entiendas demasiado inglés:

 

 

Take a look at apple today. managed to get over that hump of 540, 541. currently 548 and change. off its high of 705, of course, certainly a topic our capital markets editor gary kaminsky has touched on quite a few times. another go today.

We are. due to popular demand request let’s get right to it.joining me is tom mcclellan, editor of mcclellan report. market newsletter. Tom, we showed some charts recently you had sent on to us. so i know you’ve got a number you want to share with the viewers. let’s get right to it and explain why you think this is so relevant to apple today. 

Tom: well, the amazing thing is that apple’s share price pattern, not the company, but we’re talking about the stock price, seems to be replicating the history of what we saw with rca in the 1920s. RCA was the giant tech darling of the 1920s. it was putting a radio in every home. it was the leading innovator. it was a great company then and it continued to be a great company afterwards, after it topped in 1929. but the price patterns are nearly a match. what that tells me — 

Let me jump into that. when we showed this chart youshowed some time ago a lot of people wrote in how can you make a comparison to a stock in the 1920s. you had a stock market crash during the period, a number of other things. as a technician how do you sort of correlate between those type of events and the charts of a stock price? 

Tom: I get those questions a lot. and people who write to me angry e-mails tell me the two companies are not similar at all. the two times are not similar. i say, yes, that’s true. but the patterns are similar. what a stock price pattern tells you is not so much about the company. it tells you about the people that are invested in it and how they are behaving and what the resemblance is saying to us is that the behavior of the investors in RCA in the ’20s and the behaviors of investors in apple now is almost exactly the same. there’s a physics involved in putting in a top. 

In terms of the apple/rca comparison you believe that the top in apple has been made? 

Tom: I do. we’re getting a nice pop that’s right on schedule this week.a lot more damage to come next year. it’s not going to be a good time for apple, the stock. apple the company is still a great company. they’re still innovating, still doing great things, still going to be doing business for a long apple’s share price is falling into the same pattern that we’ve seen lots of times before. 

You also look at apple/microsoft. what does that chart tell you in terms of, again, the technical read on those two names? 

After looking at the resemblance to RCA’s share pricefrom the 1920s which i was able to do with some help from thefolks at global financial data. they got me the data on rca. we looked back at what the resemblance was to microsoft in 2000 at the top of the tech bubble. we see the same resemblance. right now we’re getting that pop on kind of the right shoulder that microsoft had. apple is making a similar pop. we have a decline coming ahead according to what microsoft’s share price pattern did in 2000. it’s following the same dance steps. 

All right. so, i mean, clearly we know what your viewpoint is on apple. while we have you here, tom, in terms of the overall market, equity markets, i know you’ve been looking i think with euro/similars.give us a sense of what you see for the s&p looking at thecharts here. 

Tom: 2013 is not going to be a great year. we look at the commitment of traders data for euro/dollar futures. this is not the euro versus the dollars. it’s euro dollars, an interest rate product. commercial traders do, that tells us a year ahead of time what fund flows in and out of the stock market are going to look like. we’ve got a big decline coming up now. another top in may. a giant flushing sound after may and into october of 2013. not going to be a great year. which is not is a surprise in the first year of a new presidential term. it’s typically not a good year. not like the third year which is always up. but the third year quite often has trouble and things are shaping up for that to happenag time. 

Tom, thank you for your information, for sharing with us. we appreciate it. we’ll see you again soon. 

Carl, i must say, you have to always remember the difference echnicals and fundament ales. tom’s got the strong opinion in terms of looking at microsoft and rca. again, it is a technical read. 

Apple and RCA. different eras, different epics. 

I just went to the applestore over the weekend, upgraded three of my kids’ phones to the iphone 5. it’s hard to as a consumer, and he said the company is different than the stock price, but, again, it’s the type of thing important for viewers to understand. a lot of money moves in and out of names simply based on technical movements. it’s a great guest. a few moments left in europe’s trading day.