Ciovacco Capital: Stocks «Divide & Conquer» (inglés)

Análisis de situación de mercado por Ciovacco Capital.

Me ha parecido interesante compartir más puntos de vista sobre el mercado. Recuerda que no tiene por qué representar mi opinión:

Activa la opción de subtítulos de Youtube en inglés para una mejor comprensión:

0:01

in this week’s video

0:03

we look at risk management in the context 2008

0:06

and discuss how it applies to the 2014 stock market we’ve got a lot to cover

0:12

absolutely moving directly to the charts to view the video in full screen mode

0:19

use this icon in the lower right hand corner

0:22

have your video player to improve the clarity of the charts

0:27

use this icon in the lower right hand corner

0:30

have your video player briefly be looking at two charts 2008 and then

0:37

we’ll move to 2014

0:40

is it daily chart of the S&P 500

0:44

2010 ate here 2009

0:47

here if you’re relatively new to investing

0:51

this can be fairly intimidating trying to answer the question

0:55

how would I have managed through is

0:58

fifty-plus percent decline

1:01

one of the ways that we can do it and there’s many ways to approach the market

1:05

is instead of trying to predict when we’re here

1:10

what’s going to happen over the next 12 months

1:13

are worrying about where we’ll be warmer here where we’ll be

1:16

here it’s better to use

1:20

somewhat above a divide-and-conquer strategy

1:24

this is the war it’s the bear market

1:27

we can’t do to make sure that it’s not

1:31

overwhelming as we fight small battles and typically

1:35

all the battles a relatively similar this is what an uptrend looks like

1:40

this is what consolidation looks like in this is what a downtrend looks like

1:45

the key to fighting small battles is staying in then now

1:50

and worrying about what’s going to happen in the intermediate term from a

1:54

probabilistic perspective

1:55

so when we’re here are focused isn’t here

1:59

it’s not way out here when we’re here

2:03

our focus is inside this box we’re gonna be in an uptrend until we’re not

2:08

as long as we’re in an uptrend would leave it alone when something changes

2:11

then we fight

2:13

another short term battle until something changes

2:16

has all the supplied to the present day this is the present a chart of the S&P

2:22

500 as at the close on Friday

2:24

August 15 remember there are three primary battles that we can fight

2:30

what type of battle are we in now this is an

2:34

uptrend battle here marked by a series of higher highs

2:39

and higher lows that’s what an uptrend looks like

2:42

really don’t have a downtrend on this chart

2:45

to get a downtrend we need a lower low

2:49

a low or high and then a lower low

2:53

we don’t have that yet so we’re still fighting somewhat

2:56

have an in decisive battle we fought this battle here

3:00

now we’ve got a new battle we don’t know what type

3:04

battle it is from here typically one of three things can happen

3:09

we can go on to make a series of higher highs and higher lows

3:13

and then we’re fighting an uptrend battle we can consolidate

3:17

within this range here which is an indecisive

3:21

battle we tried to be patient and minimize our chess moves

3:25

or stock market could be rejected here

3:29

in go down here and make a lower low below this slow and then we’re fighting

3:34

a downtrend battle so where we are now

3:38

we’re still in we’re not sure exactly what type a battle worth fighting

3:43

since that’s the case we tried to remain patient

3:48

in trade last rather than more frequently

3:51

here you can see on Friday we had mention 1950

3:56

8 as a guidepost we close below it

3:59

on Friday we have not clear that we closed 1955

4:03

we talked about the 50-day moving average

4:06

at 19:57 close below that

4:10

as well a week ago we were patient

4:15

do to you the potential support support

4:19

help again we don’t know what type a battle worth fighting

4:22

we wanna fight in compartmentalized small pieces

4:27

so how can we do that going into Monday’s session

4:30

are going into next week as human beings what we want to know

4:36

is where will we be in six weeks

4:40

or three months we be up

4:43

will down the battle we need to fight

4:46

is to stay in the now so if we’re concerned about missing

4:50

a 100-point rally on the S&P 500

4:55

then we know this it’s not possible to rally

4:58

100 points for several weeks are several months

5:02

without first taking out Friday’s

5:05

intraday high of 1964 kisses indecisive

5:10

look here it might even be a handyman which is a potential reversal pattern

5:15

from a candlestick perspective this is our

5:18

upper with this is our lower wick we also know

5:22

that effort %ah Singh interning at night and we’re worried about a multiple month

5:26

correction

5:27

that could last 120 days possibly and see

5:31

prices fall 10 percent plus if that’s what you’re worried about

5:35

we also know that that can happen in till Friday’s

5:39

intraday low %uh 1941

5:42

is taken now so to compartmentalize

5:46

our battle next week from our perspective

5:49

and under our system and for our time frame

5:52

we would perfer to sit tight

5:56

until the market at a minimum clears 1964 we prefer to see it on a closing

6:02

basis

6:03

if we do there were more likely to

6:06

incrementally move some cash into equities

6:10

conversely if we go to 1941

6:14

we wouldn’t necessarily make a negative or bearish chess move there

6:19

if that’s the case if we take out 1941

6:23

we might consider adding some bonds based upon the evidence we have

6:27

in here now we r doin some bonds and they did well force again this week

6:32

to go below 1941 we should defer back to the previous chart

6:38

if we take out Friday’s low of 19

6:41

41 here we still won’t know what type a battle worth fighting

6:47

fact the way we’re treated as we’re fighting a range-bound

6:50

battle between let’s say nineteen fifty

6:53

eight ish in nineteen 04 ish

6:57

so as long as we remain between 1958

7:01

in 1904 all things being equal week per for

7:05

to make fewer moves or no moves why

7:08

because if we can exceed 1950 8 we will be making

7:13

I’m next chess move with better information

7:17

or if we come down here and make a lower low

7:20

below 1904 we will also be making our next

7:24

chess move with better information

7:27

this simply break 1904 now we have

7:31

a low a low or high and that would be a lower low

7:35

that’s a downtrend the ads have a correction would be greatly diminished

7:39

if the S&P 500

7:42

can go on to make a new high here about

7:45

1990 will enter next week with a

7:48

flexible unbiased an open mind

7:53

since we still have an indecisive

7:56

in unclear mission here we don’t know what battle worth fighting

8:00

the charts are mixed so we’re gonna go through them quickly because price

8:04

is the best way to manage in the short term

8:08

and compartmentalize this as at the close on Friday August 15

8:12

S&P 500 weekly we would prefer to see the present-day

8:17

morph into our full bore bullish look with price about both moving averages to

8:21

about bread

8:22

in the slopes up we have a tweener look it’s an in-between look it looks better

8:28

than it did last week but it’s still not a full-bore bullish look

8:32

if this morphs into this the probability

8:35

get things happening will increase especially

8:38

if it looks like this as at the close next Friday

8:43

week also have potential resistance on

8:47

dish chartres here around nineteen seventy

8:50

ish nineteen sixty five ish this was support

8:54

in the act as resistance resistance resistance

8:58

may act as resistance this line here could act as support

9:03

so we’re fighting a range-bound battle until proven

9:06

otherwise movie along with the mixed bag

9:11

theme nasdaq: weekly has converted back to a full bore bullish look

9:17

also exceeded this trend line here these are

9:21

all forms observable improvement and they didn’t check bullish boxes

9:26

in the CC a market not we’re just trying to give clients and regular viewers

9:31

a feel for what we’re seeing will move through this quickly

9:35

the NYSE composite index basically the exact same story that we just told

9:41

about the S&P 500

9:45

few quick points on the weekly chart have that down

9:48

first of all if you’re frustrated in these markets well

9:52

has been a little difficult last week the Dow hit a point

9:56

here the exact same point

9:59

that it hit in December it’s made no progress

10:02

a lot of volatility bad news

10:06

still has not converted into any type abolish look

10:10

good news mix back resistance

10:14

resistance breakout support

10:17

acted as support again so a mixed bag here with some good

10:22

and some how is it possible that the market model is still hovering around a

10:28

50-50 type look well this is the credit markets

10:32

and we know that JNK and TLT have a maturity

10:36

mismatch were well aware of that this

10:39

has a full-bore bearish look this is checking

10:43

very few bullish boxes

10:47

another example of a somewhat confused market this is small caps here’s a point

10:53

here in October of last year we roughly came back to that point

10:58

last week this like the previous charts a mixed bag

11:02

it appears to be holding a potential support

11:06

but it has not converted into a full-bore bullish look

11:09

this is a consolidation look for the most part

11:13

would I rather own small caps for Treasurys from a weekly trend

11:17

perspective

11:19

the answer is still treasuries this as a full more bearish

11:22

look against small caps

11:26

relative to treasuries forty L T

11:29

we prefer to see this chart from a bullish perspective in the equity

11:32

markets

11:33

morph into something like this

11:37

is the S&P 500 risk on relative to the VIX fear index risk

11:43

of you can see the ratio was rejected here

11:46

stocks were weak this is the S&P 500

11:49

rejected at resistance tax per week

11:53

broke out stocks did well here we are testing resistance

11:58

again if we can morph into a look like

12:01

this and get up here that’s bullish for stocks if we get rejected like

12:05

this increases the probability

12:08

bad things happening equities in the short run

12:14

another example avarice converses risks of showing indecisiveness this is stacks

12:19

versus long-term treasuries

12:21

telling us to be careful this is part of the fifty percent

12:25

negative in the market model this ratio has gone

12:29

nowhere in 10 months October 2013

12:32

exact same spot today

12:36

this is what indecisiveness looks like

12:39

for comparison purposes this is what 10 months

12:43

up bearish conviction looks like in 2008 in favor

12:47

treasuries in this is what 10 months a bullish conviction looks like

12:52

favoring stocks over bonds

12:57

the bad news is this is difficult or more difficult to manage through

13:02

the good news is the longer we consolidate typically

13:05

once we break out the bigger the move-up or down

13:09

we typically get how we track all of this sink converted

13:14

into a usable and actionable format in a reasonable amount of time

13:20

submodels we answer binary questions some of them manually done some of them

13:26

programmed

13:28

in Excel and we also enter in on

13:31

biased and hard data

13:34

this submodels allow us to get a handle on the market’s current profile

13:39

and the master CCM market model then looks at the current profile

13:44

compares it to pass profiles and recommends a prudent allocation

13:49

between risk assets such as stocks

13:52

in conservative assets such as bonds conservative assets can consist have

13:57

cash bonds currency

14:01

or any number have investment options

14:04

if you’d like to learn more about the market model or money management

14:08

services you can visit our website

14:11

follow along on Twitter Facebook

14:14

read our blog shortcake’s or watch pass videos

14:19

on the show vacco capital channel on UT

14:24

the material in this video has no regard to the specific investment objectives

14:28

financial situation or particular needs any viewer

14:31

this video is presented solely for informational purposes

14:35

and is not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any

14:38

security

14:39

or any related financial instruments nor should any of the content be taken as

14:43

investment advice

14:45

any opinions expressed in speedy are subject to change without notice

14:48

shackle Capital Management LLC or CCM

14:51

is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained

14:55

herein

14:56

CCM in its respective officers and associates or clients

15:00

may have an interest in the securities or derivatives have any entities

15:02

referred to in this material

15:04

CCM accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage

15:08

have any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this material

15:12

we recommend you consult with a licensed and qualified professional

15:15

before making any investment decision