Análisis de situación de mercado por Ciovacco Capital.
Me ha parecido interesante compartir más puntos de vista sobre el mercado. Recuerda que no tiene por qué representar mi opinión:
Activa la opción de subtítulos de Youtube en inglés para una mejor comprensión:
0:01in this week’s video0:03we look at risk management in the context 20080:06and discuss how it applies to the 2014 stock market we’ve got a lot to cover0:12absolutely moving directly to the charts to view the video in full screen mode0:19use this icon in the lower right hand corner0:22have your video player to improve the clarity of the charts0:27use this icon in the lower right hand corner0:30have your video player briefly be looking at two charts 2008 and then0:37we’ll move to 20140:40is it daily chart of the S&P 5000:442010 ate here 20090:47here if you’re relatively new to investing0:51this can be fairly intimidating trying to answer the question0:55how would I have managed through is0:58fifty-plus percent decline1:01one of the ways that we can do it and there’s many ways to approach the market1:05is instead of trying to predict when we’re here1:10what’s going to happen over the next 12 months1:13are worrying about where we’ll be warmer here where we’ll be1:16here it’s better to use1:20somewhat above a divide-and-conquer strategy1:24this is the war it’s the bear market1:27we can’t do to make sure that it’s not1:31overwhelming as we fight small battles and typically1:35all the battles a relatively similar this is what an uptrend looks like1:40this is what consolidation looks like in this is what a downtrend looks like1:45the key to fighting small battles is staying in then now1:50and worrying about what’s going to happen in the intermediate term from a1:54probabilistic perspective1:55so when we’re here are focused isn’t here1:59it’s not way out here when we’re here2:03our focus is inside this box we’re gonna be in an uptrend until we’re not2:08as long as we’re in an uptrend would leave it alone when something changes2:11then we fight2:13another short term battle until something changes2:16has all the supplied to the present day this is the present a chart of the S&P2:22500 as at the close on Friday2:24August 15 remember there are three primary battles that we can fight2:30what type of battle are we in now this is an2:34uptrend battle here marked by a series of higher highs2:39and higher lows that’s what an uptrend looks like2:42really don’t have a downtrend on this chart2:45to get a downtrend we need a lower low2:49a low or high and then a lower low2:53we don’t have that yet so we’re still fighting somewhat2:56have an in decisive battle we fought this battle here3:00now we’ve got a new battle we don’t know what type3:04battle it is from here typically one of three things can happen3:09we can go on to make a series of higher highs and higher lows3:13and then we’re fighting an uptrend battle we can consolidate3:17within this range here which is an indecisive3:21battle we tried to be patient and minimize our chess moves3:25or stock market could be rejected here3:29in go down here and make a lower low below this slow and then we’re fighting3:34a downtrend battle so where we are now3:38we’re still in we’re not sure exactly what type a battle worth fighting3:43since that’s the case we tried to remain patient3:48in trade last rather than more frequently3:51here you can see on Friday we had mention 19503:568 as a guidepost we close below it3:59on Friday we have not clear that we closed 19554:03we talked about the 50-day moving average4:06at 19:57 close below that4:10as well a week ago we were patient4:15do to you the potential support support4:19help again we don’t know what type a battle worth fighting4:22we wanna fight in compartmentalized small pieces4:27so how can we do that going into Monday’s session4:30are going into next week as human beings what we want to know4:36is where will we be in six weeks4:40or three months we be up4:43will down the battle we need to fight4:46is to stay in the now so if we’re concerned about missing4:50a 100-point rally on the S&P 5004:55then we know this it’s not possible to rally4:58100 points for several weeks are several months5:02without first taking out Friday’s5:05intraday high of 1964 kisses indecisive5:10look here it might even be a handyman which is a potential reversal pattern5:15from a candlestick perspective this is our5:18upper with this is our lower wick we also know5:22that effort %ah Singh interning at night and we’re worried about a multiple month5:26correction5:27that could last 120 days possibly and see5:31prices fall 10 percent plus if that’s what you’re worried about5:35we also know that that can happen in till Friday’s5:39intraday low %uh 19415:42is taken now so to compartmentalize5:46our battle next week from our perspective5:49and under our system and for our time frame5:52we would perfer to sit tight5:56until the market at a minimum clears 1964 we prefer to see it on a closing6:02basis6:03if we do there were more likely to6:06incrementally move some cash into equities6:10conversely if we go to 19416:14we wouldn’t necessarily make a negative or bearish chess move there6:19if that’s the case if we take out 19416:23we might consider adding some bonds based upon the evidence we have6:27in here now we r doin some bonds and they did well force again this week6:32to go below 1941 we should defer back to the previous chart6:38if we take out Friday’s low of 196:4141 here we still won’t know what type a battle worth fighting6:47fact the way we’re treated as we’re fighting a range-bound6:50battle between let’s say nineteen fifty6:53eight ish in nineteen 04 ish6:57so as long as we remain between 19587:01in 1904 all things being equal week per for7:05to make fewer moves or no moves why7:08because if we can exceed 1950 8 we will be making7:13I’m next chess move with better information7:17or if we come down here and make a lower low7:20below 1904 we will also be making our next7:24chess move with better information7:27this simply break 1904 now we have7:31a low a low or high and that would be a lower low7:35that’s a downtrend the ads have a correction would be greatly diminished7:39if the S&P 5007:42can go on to make a new high here about7:451990 will enter next week with a7:48flexible unbiased an open mind7:53since we still have an indecisive7:56in unclear mission here we don’t know what battle worth fighting8:00the charts are mixed so we’re gonna go through them quickly because price8:04is the best way to manage in the short term8:08and compartmentalize this as at the close on Friday August 158:12S&P 500 weekly we would prefer to see the present-day8:17morph into our full bore bullish look with price about both moving averages to8:21about bread8:22in the slopes up we have a tweener look it’s an in-between look it looks better8:28than it did last week but it’s still not a full-bore bullish look8:32if this morphs into this the probability8:35get things happening will increase especially8:38if it looks like this as at the close next Friday8:43week also have potential resistance on8:47dish chartres here around nineteen seventy8:50ish nineteen sixty five ish this was support8:54in the act as resistance resistance resistance8:58may act as resistance this line here could act as support9:03so we’re fighting a range-bound battle until proven9:06otherwise movie along with the mixed bag9:11theme nasdaq: weekly has converted back to a full bore bullish look9:17also exceeded this trend line here these are9:21all forms observable improvement and they didn’t check bullish boxes9:26in the CC a market not we’re just trying to give clients and regular viewers9:31a feel for what we’re seeing will move through this quickly9:35the NYSE composite index basically the exact same story that we just told9:41about the S&P 5009:45few quick points on the weekly chart have that down9:48first of all if you’re frustrated in these markets well9:52has been a little difficult last week the Dow hit a point9:56here the exact same point9:59that it hit in December it’s made no progress10:02a lot of volatility bad news10:06still has not converted into any type abolish look10:10good news mix back resistance10:14resistance breakout support10:17acted as support again so a mixed bag here with some good10:22and some how is it possible that the market model is still hovering around a10:2850-50 type look well this is the credit markets10:32and we know that JNK and TLT have a maturity10:36mismatch were well aware of that this10:39has a full-bore bearish look this is checking10:43very few bullish boxes10:47another example of a somewhat confused market this is small caps here’s a point10:53here in October of last year we roughly came back to that point10:58last week this like the previous charts a mixed bag11:02it appears to be holding a potential support11:06but it has not converted into a full-bore bullish look11:09this is a consolidation look for the most part11:13would I rather own small caps for Treasurys from a weekly trend11:17perspective11:19the answer is still treasuries this as a full more bearish11:22look against small caps11:26relative to treasuries forty L T11:29we prefer to see this chart from a bullish perspective in the equity11:32markets11:33morph into something like this11:37is the S&P 500 risk on relative to the VIX fear index risk11:43of you can see the ratio was rejected here11:46stocks were weak this is the S&P 50011:49rejected at resistance tax per week11:53broke out stocks did well here we are testing resistance11:58again if we can morph into a look like12:01this and get up here that’s bullish for stocks if we get rejected like12:05this increases the probability12:08bad things happening equities in the short run12:14another example avarice converses risks of showing indecisiveness this is stacks12:19versus long-term treasuries12:21telling us to be careful this is part of the fifty percent12:25negative in the market model this ratio has gone12:29nowhere in 10 months October 201312:32exact same spot today12:36this is what indecisiveness looks like12:39for comparison purposes this is what 10 months12:43up bearish conviction looks like in 2008 in favor12:47treasuries in this is what 10 months a bullish conviction looks like12:52favoring stocks over bonds12:57the bad news is this is difficult or more difficult to manage through13:02the good news is the longer we consolidate typically13:05once we break out the bigger the move-up or down13:09we typically get how we track all of this sink converted13:14into a usable and actionable format in a reasonable amount of time13:20submodels we answer binary questions some of them manually done some of them13:26programmed13:28in Excel and we also enter in on13:31biased and hard data13:34this submodels allow us to get a handle on the market’s current profile13:39and the master CCM market model then looks at the current profile13:44compares it to pass profiles and recommends a prudent allocation13:49between risk assets such as stocks13:52in conservative assets such as bonds conservative assets can consist have13:57cash bonds currency14:01or any number have investment options14:04if you’d like to learn more about the market model or money management14:08services you can visit our website14:11follow along on Twitter Facebook14:14read our blog shortcake’s or watch pass videos14:19on the show vacco capital channel on UT14:24the material in this video has no regard to the specific investment objectives14:28financial situation or particular needs any viewer14:31this video is presented solely for informational purposes14:35and is not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any14:38security14:39or any related financial instruments nor should any of the content be taken as14:43investment advice14:45any opinions expressed in speedy are subject to change without notice14:48shackle Capital Management LLC or CCM14:51is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained14:55herein14:56CCM in its respective officers and associates or clients15:00may have an interest in the securities or derivatives have any entities15:02referred to in this material15:04CCM accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage15:08have any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this material15:12we recommend you consult with a licensed and qualified professional15:15before making any investment decision