Ciovacco Capital: Stocks “Divide & Conquer” (inglés)

| agosto 17, 2014 | 4 Comentarios

Análisis de situación de mercado por Ciovacco Capital.

Me ha parecido interesante compartir más puntos de vista sobre el mercado. Recuerda que no tiene por qué representar mi opinión:

Activa la opción de subtítulos de Youtube en inglés para una mejor comprensión:

transc

0:01
in this week’s video
0:03
we look at risk management in the context 2008
0:06
and discuss how it applies to the 2014 stock market we’ve got a lot to cover
0:12
absolutely moving directly to the charts to view the video in full screen mode
0:19
use this icon in the lower right hand corner
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have your video player to improve the clarity of the charts
0:27
use this icon in the lower right hand corner
0:30
have your video player briefly be looking at two charts 2008 and then
0:37
we’ll move to 2014
0:40
is it daily chart of the S&P 500
0:44
2010 ate here 2009
0:47
here if you’re relatively new to investing
0:51
this can be fairly intimidating trying to answer the question
0:55
how would I have managed through is
0:58
fifty-plus percent decline
1:01
one of the ways that we can do it and there’s many ways to approach the market
1:05
is instead of trying to predict when we’re here
1:10
what’s going to happen over the next 12 months
1:13
are worrying about where we’ll be warmer here where we’ll be
1:16
here it’s better to use
1:20
somewhat above a divide-and-conquer strategy
1:24
this is the war it’s the bear market
1:27
we can’t do to make sure that it’s not
1:31
overwhelming as we fight small battles and typically
1:35
all the battles a relatively similar this is what an uptrend looks like
1:40
this is what consolidation looks like in this is what a downtrend looks like
1:45
the key to fighting small battles is staying in then now
1:50
and worrying about what’s going to happen in the intermediate term from a
1:54
probabilistic perspective
1:55
so when we’re here are focused isn’t here
1:59
it’s not way out here when we’re here
2:03
our focus is inside this box we’re gonna be in an uptrend until we’re not
2:08
as long as we’re in an uptrend would leave it alone when something changes
2:11
then we fight
2:13
another short term battle until something changes
2:16
has all the supplied to the present day this is the present a chart of the S&P
2:22
500 as at the close on Friday
2:24
August 15 remember there are three primary battles that we can fight
2:30
what type of battle are we in now this is an
2:34
uptrend battle here marked by a series of higher highs
2:39
and higher lows that’s what an uptrend looks like
2:42
really don’t have a downtrend on this chart
2:45
to get a downtrend we need a lower low
2:49
a low or high and then a lower low
2:53
we don’t have that yet so we’re still fighting somewhat
2:56
have an in decisive battle we fought this battle here
3:00
now we’ve got a new battle we don’t know what type
3:04
battle it is from here typically one of three things can happen
3:09
we can go on to make a series of higher highs and higher lows
3:13
and then we’re fighting an uptrend battle we can consolidate
3:17
within this range here which is an indecisive
3:21
battle we tried to be patient and minimize our chess moves
3:25
or stock market could be rejected here
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in go down here and make a lower low below this slow and then we’re fighting
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a downtrend battle so where we are now
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we’re still in we’re not sure exactly what type a battle worth fighting
3:43
since that’s the case we tried to remain patient
3:48
in trade last rather than more frequently
3:51
here you can see on Friday we had mention 1950
3:56
8 as a guidepost we close below it
3:59
on Friday we have not clear that we closed 1955
4:03
we talked about the 50-day moving average
4:06
at 19:57 close below that
4:10
as well a week ago we were patient
4:15
do to you the potential support support
4:19
help again we don’t know what type a battle worth fighting
4:22
we wanna fight in compartmentalized small pieces
4:27
so how can we do that going into Monday’s session
4:30
are going into next week as human beings what we want to know
4:36
is where will we be in six weeks
4:40
or three months we be up
4:43
will down the battle we need to fight
4:46
is to stay in the now so if we’re concerned about missing
4:50
a 100-point rally on the S&P 500
4:55
then we know this it’s not possible to rally
4:58
100 points for several weeks are several months
5:02
without first taking out Friday’s
5:05
intraday high of 1964 kisses indecisive
5:10
look here it might even be a handyman which is a potential reversal pattern
5:15
from a candlestick perspective this is our
5:18
upper with this is our lower wick we also know
5:22
that effort %ah Singh interning at night and we’re worried about a multiple month
5:26
correction
5:27
that could last 120 days possibly and see
5:31
prices fall 10 percent plus if that’s what you’re worried about
5:35
we also know that that can happen in till Friday’s
5:39
intraday low %uh 1941
5:42
is taken now so to compartmentalize
5:46
our battle next week from our perspective
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and under our system and for our time frame
5:52
we would perfer to sit tight
5:56
until the market at a minimum clears 1964 we prefer to see it on a closing
6:02
basis
6:03
if we do there were more likely to
6:06
incrementally move some cash into equities
6:10
conversely if we go to 1941
6:14
we wouldn’t necessarily make a negative or bearish chess move there
6:19
if that’s the case if we take out 1941
6:23
we might consider adding some bonds based upon the evidence we have
6:27
in here now we r doin some bonds and they did well force again this week
6:32
to go below 1941 we should defer back to the previous chart
6:38
if we take out Friday’s low of 19
6:41
41 here we still won’t know what type a battle worth fighting
6:47
fact the way we’re treated as we’re fighting a range-bound
6:50
battle between let’s say nineteen fifty
6:53
eight ish in nineteen 04 ish
6:57
so as long as we remain between 1958
7:01
in 1904 all things being equal week per for
7:05
to make fewer moves or no moves why
7:08
because if we can exceed 1950 8 we will be making
7:13
I’m next chess move with better information
7:17
or if we come down here and make a lower low
7:20
below 1904 we will also be making our next
7:24
chess move with better information
7:27
this simply break 1904 now we have
7:31
a low a low or high and that would be a lower low
7:35
that’s a downtrend the ads have a correction would be greatly diminished
7:39
if the S&P 500
7:42
can go on to make a new high here about
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1990 will enter next week with a
7:48
flexible unbiased an open mind
7:53
since we still have an indecisive
7:56
in unclear mission here we don’t know what battle worth fighting
8:00
the charts are mixed so we’re gonna go through them quickly because price
8:04
is the best way to manage in the short term
8:08
and compartmentalize this as at the close on Friday August 15
8:12
S&P 500 weekly we would prefer to see the present-day
8:17
morph into our full bore bullish look with price about both moving averages to
8:21
about bread
8:22
in the slopes up we have a tweener look it’s an in-between look it looks better
8:28
than it did last week but it’s still not a full-bore bullish look
8:32
if this morphs into this the probability
8:35
get things happening will increase especially
8:38
if it looks like this as at the close next Friday
8:43
week also have potential resistance on
8:47
dish chartres here around nineteen seventy
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ish nineteen sixty five ish this was support
8:54
in the act as resistance resistance resistance
8:58
may act as resistance this line here could act as support
9:03
so we’re fighting a range-bound battle until proven
9:06
otherwise movie along with the mixed bag
9:11
theme nasdaq: weekly has converted back to a full bore bullish look
9:17
also exceeded this trend line here these are
9:21
all forms observable improvement and they didn’t check bullish boxes
9:26
in the CC a market not we’re just trying to give clients and regular viewers
9:31
a feel for what we’re seeing will move through this quickly
9:35
the NYSE composite index basically the exact same story that we just told
9:41
about the S&P 500
9:45
few quick points on the weekly chart have that down
9:48
first of all if you’re frustrated in these markets well
9:52
has been a little difficult last week the Dow hit a point
9:56
here the exact same point
9:59
that it hit in December it’s made no progress
10:02
a lot of volatility bad news
10:06
still has not converted into any type abolish look
10:10
good news mix back resistance
10:14
resistance breakout support
10:17
acted as support again so a mixed bag here with some good
10:22
and some how is it possible that the market model is still hovering around a
10:28
50-50 type look well this is the credit markets
10:32
and we know that JNK and TLT have a maturity
10:36
mismatch were well aware of that this
10:39
has a full-bore bearish look this is checking
10:43
very few bullish boxes
10:47
another example of a somewhat confused market this is small caps here’s a point
10:53
here in October of last year we roughly came back to that point
10:58
last week this like the previous charts a mixed bag
11:02
it appears to be holding a potential support
11:06
but it has not converted into a full-bore bullish look
11:09
this is a consolidation look for the most part
11:13
would I rather own small caps for Treasurys from a weekly trend
11:17
perspective
11:19
the answer is still treasuries this as a full more bearish
11:22
look against small caps
11:26
relative to treasuries forty L T
11:29
we prefer to see this chart from a bullish perspective in the equity
11:32
markets
11:33
morph into something like this
11:37
is the S&P 500 risk on relative to the VIX fear index risk
11:43
of you can see the ratio was rejected here
11:46
stocks were weak this is the S&P 500
11:49
rejected at resistance tax per week
11:53
broke out stocks did well here we are testing resistance
11:58
again if we can morph into a look like
12:01
this and get up here that’s bullish for stocks if we get rejected like
12:05
this increases the probability
12:08
bad things happening equities in the short run
12:14
another example avarice converses risks of showing indecisiveness this is stacks
12:19
versus long-term treasuries
12:21
telling us to be careful this is part of the fifty percent
12:25
negative in the market model this ratio has gone
12:29
nowhere in 10 months October 2013
12:32
exact same spot today
12:36
this is what indecisiveness looks like
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for comparison purposes this is what 10 months
12:43
up bearish conviction looks like in 2008 in favor
12:47
treasuries in this is what 10 months a bullish conviction looks like
12:52
favoring stocks over bonds
12:57
the bad news is this is difficult or more difficult to manage through
13:02
the good news is the longer we consolidate typically
13:05
once we break out the bigger the move-up or down
13:09
we typically get how we track all of this sink converted
13:14
into a usable and actionable format in a reasonable amount of time
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submodels we answer binary questions some of them manually done some of them
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programmed
13:28
in Excel and we also enter in on
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biased and hard data
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this submodels allow us to get a handle on the market’s current profile
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and the master CCM market model then looks at the current profile
13:44
compares it to pass profiles and recommends a prudent allocation
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between risk assets such as stocks
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in conservative assets such as bonds conservative assets can consist have
13:57
cash bonds currency
14:01
or any number have investment options
14:04
if you’d like to learn more about the market model or money management
14:08
services you can visit our website
14:11
follow along on Twitter Facebook
14:14
read our blog shortcake’s or watch pass videos
14:19
on the show vacco capital channel on UT
14:24
the material in this video has no regard to the specific investment objectives
14:28
financial situation or particular needs any viewer
14:31
this video is presented solely for informational purposes
14:35
and is not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any
14:38
security
14:39
or any related financial instruments nor should any of the content be taken as
14:43
investment advice
14:45
any opinions expressed in speedy are subject to change without notice
14:48
shackle Capital Management LLC or CCM
14:51
is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained
14:55
herein
14:56
CCM in its respective officers and associates or clients
15:00
may have an interest in the securities or derivatives have any entities
15:02
referred to in this material
15:04
CCM accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage
15:08
have any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this material
15:12
we recommend you consult with a licensed and qualified professional
15:15
before making any investment decision

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Comentarios (4)

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  1. jose angel dice:

    hola,podiras hacer un resumen rapido sobre lo q dice?
    saludos y gracias

  2. Dice algo así como que el momento actual de los mercados es indeterminado, que puede subir o bajar. El Nasdaq está que lo parte y luego compara con otros mercados pasados.

    Parece que tiene un sesgo negativo (que ya sabeis que no tengo por qué compartir o estar de acuerdo con eso).

  3. jose angel dice:

    GRACIAS

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